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Ukraine Situation Report | 14 April 2023

14 April 2023

Several major developments have emerged from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in recent days, including most notably the leak of unverified US intelligence relating to the war, as well as claimed footage of Russian soldiers beheading a Ukrainian prisoner of war (PoW). Meanwhile, on the ground, fierce fighting in and around the embattled city of Bakhmut continues and Russian troops have been digging in defensive positions in anticipation of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of occupied Ukraine.

The leaked US intelligence documents from the Pentagon reportedly contain a mixture of facts, speculation, and inaccurate or false information about Ukraine’s military and the positions of allied countries on military aid. Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov has stated that while some of the leaked information may be accurate, the intelligence had “lost its relevance”, and while still unverified, the documents have nevertheless generated significant responses by various governments, including the UK and Serbia, which have both rejected claims made that British forces were fighting in Ukraine and that Serbia had sold weapons to Kyiv and Moscow, as untrue. The documents also suggested that the US was monitoring UN chief Antonio Guterres due to alleged suspicions he had been too soft on Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Unconfirmed casualty figures were also listed in the files, which suggested around 354,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops had been killed or wounded since the invasion began. While listing the estimated casualty figures, the documents also warned the conflict had been deemed likely to drag on well beyond 2023. The FBI in the US has arrested 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, from the US Air Force National Guard in connection with the alleged leak.

Amidst the international upset caused by the leaked documents, both Kyiv and Moscow have also announced separate investigations into the video footage which circulated on social media earlier this week, purportedly showing the alleged decapitation of a Ukrainian soldier. The video is believed to have been filmed by Russian Wagner Group mercenaries. Ukrainian officials have strongly condemned the Russian military following the emergence of the video, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on world leaders to respond to what Ukraine’s SBU security service has labelled as evidence of Russian war crimes. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has called the video "awful" and has questioned its authenticity. The footage is of low-quality and appears to have been shot on a mobile phone, but clearly shows a man in military uniform wearing a signature Ukrainian yellow armband, while Russian white bands are visible on the perpetrators legs. Other details, including Ukrainian body armour symbols and a Ukrainian military ID, are also visible. The video is speculated to have been filmed near the eastern Ukrainian city of Kreminna, however this has not been confirmed and a precise time frame on when the video may have been shot also remains unclear, although foliage in the background indicates the season could have been late spring or summer - suggesting it may have been filmed sometime last year. Former Wagner sources have also allegedly recognised the perpetrators as unnamed Wagner fighters, although these claims cannot be corroborated.

On the ground, Russia’s defence ministry has claimed that its forces had successfully “blocked” Ukrainian troops from leaving or entering Bakhmut, although Kyiv has rejected the claim and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin also stated he believed it was still “too early” to say Russia had the city surrounded, as Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to deploy reserve troops to key areas amid heavy battles - suggesting a military stalemate in some areas. Kyiv has also denied that Russian troops have captured more than 80 percent of the city, responding by stating that significantly more than 20 percent remained under Ukrainian control. In the nearby Zaporizhzhia region, Russian forces are reported to have focused efforts on building extensive defensive lines, while Russian troops in the annexed Crimea region are also believed to have been digging complex systems of deep defensive trenches near the region’s border with Kherson. The moves reportedly come as Moscow anticipates a renewed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern occupied regions. A Russian mine is also reported to have exploded near the generator room of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station on Friday, causing further concern amongst nuclear authorities as to the integrity of the site.